NICS Numbers for July Show Another Drop

The National Instant Background Check System (NICS) shows another slide in gun sales and background checks for July of 2023. According to calculations, gun sales for July 2023 have dropped 17.8% from July 2022. The NICS total background checks declined by about 16.8% from July 2022. July 2023 comes in fifth for total gun sales of all July numbers since 1999 and sixth in NICS background check numbers since 1999, which was the start of the NICS system.

The number of gun sales calculated for the month is nearly a million. The National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) released its estimates for gun sales in July. There is uncertainty in determining how many background checks translate to gun sales. My calculations and the NSSF numbers are reasonably close. From the NSSF:

The July 2023 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,023,903 is a decrease of 17.0 percent compared to the July 2022 figure of 1,233,115. For comparison, the unadjusted July 2023 FBI NICS figure 1,987,650 reflects a 15.7 percent decrease from 2,358,150 in July 2022. July 2023 marks the 48th month in a row, four years, that has exceeded 1 million adjusted background checks in a single month.

The NSSF adjustment shows over a million gun sales for 48 months straight. It represents a new normal in firearms sales based on increasing numbers of gun owners.

In some segments of the firearms market, supply may be overcoming demand. As that happens, prices drop.  There are perfectly good AR-15 rifles for less than $400 on the market. The price when the first AR-15 rifles were offered to the public by Colt in 1964 was $189.50. Dollars in 1964 were worth much more than they are today. A dollar in 1964 was worth about $9.84 of today’s dollars. The comparable price of the Colt AR-15 today would be $1,865. Effectively, we can purchase rifles comparable to the first Colt AR-15 rifles for one-fourth the earning power it took in 1964. This is because the initial costs of development have been amortized, and the productivity of men and machines has increased enormously in the last sixty years.

One of the reasons for the sales of a million guns a month is simple. Guns are relatively cheap compared to decades past.  Ammunition is similarly less expensive in the number of hours worked to purchase cartridges. An obvious exception is surplus military cartridges. In times past, they have often been available at far below the cost of production. Increasing numbers of gun owners and the continued uncertainty in domestic politics and international affairs are part of the reason for the continued gun sales of about a million guns a month. The latest addition of a million guns sold in July of 2023 brings the estimate of the total stock of private firearms in the United States of America to 498 million. Barring some unexpected and extreme events, the private stock of firearms in the United States will reach half a billion in 2023.

About Dean Weingarten:

Dean Weingarten has been a peace officer, a military officer, was on the University of Wisconsin Pistol Team for four years, and was first certified to teach firearms safety in 1973. He taught the Arizona concealed carry course for fifteen years until the goal of Constitutional Carry was attained. He has degrees in meteorology and mining engineering, and retired from the Department of Defense after a 30 year career in Army Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation.