On June 23, a study on the underreporting of firearm ownership was published in the Journal ” Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology.” The title is “Predicting potential underreporting of firearm ownership in a nationally representative sample,” hereafter referred to as the ‘study.’ The study indicated the number of people who refuse to report they are firearm owners, who have been called “shy” firearms owners, are about as numerous as firearms owners willing to identify themselves as such.
The full study is behind a paywall online. Allison E. Bond, the principal author of the study, was very kind and sent a copy for me to read for this article.
The study used a sample of 3500 people who were chosen to be a representative of United States adults. The number of adults in the United States at the time of the survey was about 258 million. They found 34.6% of those surveyed admitted to owning firearms, about 89 million people. The study estimated another 29.6% of respondents were likely to be “shy” gun owners. This would put the total number of gun owners in the US at roughly 64% of adults, or 166 million people.
The study found that American gun owners are more diverse than previously thought. The percentage of women and people of color who own guns is growing rapidly.
The number of “shy” firearms owners has been a major uncertainty overhanging the study of firearms ownership and its effects in the United States. The study approached the uncertainty from the perspective of interest in understanding and preventing suicide in the nation’s population. While the study acknowledged 50% of suicides in the US involve firearms, it did not mention the percentage involving firearms has fallen from about 60% in the early and mid-1990s.
Any attempt to measure the number of “shy” gun owners is difficult. The study was clear about the difficulty:
Ultimately, our model cannot conclusively determine whether those designated as potential firearm owners truly owned firearms at the time of the survey—nor can we determine why they falsely denied firearm ownership if, in fact, they did so.
As is common in academic studies, the paper calls for more study. There are several ways of better understanding the number of gun owners that might be gleaned from careful data gathering. Surveys might be designed to find the “shy” gun owner. An intensive investigation of small samples might prove informative. Statistical evidence may be available from the FBI NICS system. The few states which require gun registration for legal ownership may give clues to trends in gun ownership numbers. From the study:
Several limitations must be considered in interpreting our findings. First, our model cannot conclusively determine whether any of the probable firearm owners are actual firearm owners. As such, this preliminary examination rests on empirical assumptions and must be seen as an initial test in need of independent replication and more nuanced analysis.
The number of gun owners willing to announce their ownership status in a survey is fairly close to the large survey done in 2021 by Dr. William English. Dr. English found 31.9% of adults were willing to disclose they owned a firearm, which compares favorably to the 34.6% found in the current study. Both surveys were done with known samples rather than as random telephone surveys. The response to telephone surveys has fallen enormously since 1997. The response in 1997 was 36%. From pewresearch.org:
In 2017 and 2018, typical telephone survey response rates fell to 7% and 6%, respectively, according to the Center’s latest data. Response rates had previously held steady around 9% for several years.
Random telephone surveys have become less and less reliable as a result of a lack of participation.
The precise number of “shy” gun owners is not clear. The number is probably substantial. Such numbers have significant political consequences. If there are 166 million gun-owning adults in the USA, it explains much of the political success of Second Amendment supporters. If nearly half of them are “shy” gun owners, the “shy” gun owners may also be “shy” about responding to surveys that indicate support for or against the right to keep and bear arms.
About Dean Weingarten:
Dean Weingarten has been a peace officer, a military officer, was on the University of Wisconsin Pistol Team for four years, and was first certified to teach firearms safety in 1973. He taught the Arizona concealed carry course for fifteen years until the goal of Constitutional Carry was attained. He has degrees in meteorology and mining engineering, and retired from the Department of Defense after a 30 year career in Army Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation.
Moi? Admit that I own guns? And how many? When that information could be leaked and used against me by my own gun grabbing Gooberment? You wonder why I might lie?
And you spent HOW many FedGov fiat dollars to figure this out?
Our tax dollars, well spent.
OFC, most of us actual gun owners knew this all along. Being aware of how hostile the polling services are towards us, telling them how many guns we own is tantamount to a rich man putting up a neon sign pointing at the safe behind his painting that says: “CASH STORED HERE”! 🙂 We also know that we don’t have to incriminate ourselves, so OFC most of us refuse to answer such questions, or else just lie. We understand that even though owning guns is legal, that is NOT the way the government agencies act. “Shy” gun owners? More like… Read more »
What do you mean “how many?” If you know how many, then you don’t have enough. Of course, if you don’t know how many then you have a short list and a wish list.
That’s long been my answer to the question: “So how many guns do you have?”
A: “Enough that I don’t know.”
Not enough or not as many as I want is always the answer to the “how many” question.
That’s a great answer too.
Q: “How many guns do you have?
A: “Not enough”
True too. Bc no matter how many one has, there are always more that one wants. With guns, there’s no such thing as enough. 🙂
As you say, it’s not like it’s real money.
No!!!!! Really? You can’t tell me that anyone who mistrusts the government would hide the fact that they have a firearm(or more). That would be……smart.
Proof that the “shy” gun owners are intelligent people. And also that the poll was heavily biased, bc they chose to use the word “shy”. A negative word with a root in fear. If they’d said “smart” that would be positive “spin”. To demonstrate neutrality, which all pollsters are supposed to do if they follow proper statistical procedure, they’d need to find a non-biased term for those who don’t want their gun ownership made public. Which very few polls even attempt to do. Proper statisticians would put a lot of effort into choosing the correct word to use here. Perhaps… Read more »
wow! they had to conduct a study (did someone need some government money) to predict that Americans are not truthful about if and how many firearms they own. especially with the current administration and they way they are going after them.
firearm ownership is the only diversity i can get behind and support. how about a law that forces everyone to purchase a firearm? a huge number of progs heads would explode. might be fun to watch and definitely beneficial to America.
Kennesaw, Georgia already passed such a law back in the 1980s! And all the anti heads did indeed explode. They made up the same dire predictions of “blood in the streets” and similar fictions that they’re still peddling today… but violent crime dropped to less than half of what it had been within a few years. So naturally, a few years later, the progs(we called them antis back then) pretended to have never heard of the place before. Even though it was one of their big talking points for years. What else should we expect? Liars lie. Nothing too strange… Read more »
Why would anyone participate in a telephone survey?
All I have to say is this – here in commie NJ, we have added 1M new gun owners since 2019 – almost all are women and people of color. So the “official” gun ownership is not 10% to 15% as the state published, but more like 30%. And this is with all the hurdles you must pass over to get a legal firearm – FOID card (can take months), pistol permit (can also take months), and the process of buying – NICS is run through the states and can take a week to be approved.
If you want to leave “commie NJ” and visit the U.S., do you need to get a visa? If for some unforeseen reason I needed to drive through NJ, do they stop and search your car like the East Germans would do at the East/West German and East Berlin borders?
It’s interesting that, when it comes to guns, they medical community is all for preventing suicide. Otherwise, they’re fine with even teenagers doing themselves in for things like “depression.”
Doesn’t that sound like a double standard?
As a former SEIU member, I get pollsters calling me all the time. When the questions get to guns, I say I don’t have any guns in my home, never have and never will. That’s a lie.
So do you feel; “shy” like in the study? 🙂
Or do you feel satisfied in a job well done????
It should be a job well done; consider: a poll is taken. The poll indicates that there are 100,000 people with guns. Total. The pols think: “hey – that’s not many; I’ll come out against guns and get the anti-gun vote.” The real number is 200,000,000. He gets vaporized in the election by the “invisible” gun owners.
Yup, job well done.
That’s the way I would feel. If I took polls. But I tell them to take a hike instead. It might be mean, but curtly brushing them off makes me feel better. 🙂 If I did take one though, then I’d lie too. Esp. if I were a member of a trade union. If there is a gunsmithing trade union, I’m not a member. But if there was such a thing, and I were a member, I’d still claim not to have a gun at home. Even to a gunsmith union, I wouldn’t tell how many. Does that sound smart?… Read more »
I quit answering polls over 20 years ago as they got more loaded with emotional questions like “for the children, would you support gun support bans, restrictions, or some lame gun controls scheme?”. That’s not a poll, that’s a leading question to get an predetermined response. Many of the pollsters don’t know how to structure their questions, do the demographics, or ask honest questions. I don’t answer polls and I know many people who wouldn’t answer questions about gun ownership,gun types, numbers, or any related question that could incriminate or reveal gun ownership.
Talking about how many guns one owns brings up an important question: If I have an AR lower that hosts two different uppers, does that count as one and a half?
If you bring math into it, that also makes the antis’ heads explode! 🙂
Esp hard ones, like “half” LOL 🙂
How was the sample chosen? Questions on Emergency Room and/or Hospital Admissions? Was the study funded by Taxpayer Dollars?
https://www.northwell.edu/center-for-gun-violence-prevention
Every since my boating accident while I was hunting I lost everything.
I was brought up that Lying isn’t ever acceptable behavior. Just this week though, I told a WHOPPER. Had to go for my annual Medicare Recert Medical Appointments, and was asked twice, a out whether I owned guns. Once on the Questionnaire and again by the PA that did the review. To both, I replied “No.” It’s None of the Government’s or my Doctor’s business whether I own Guns or not. How many of us own weapons for which there’s never been a BGC or a 4473? I know quote a few gun owners, who haven’t bought a gun since… Read more »
What?
Me own firearms?
You think I should admit that to a federal government that trained me as a U.S. Marine to be a deadly sharpshooter, but now does not trust me to own a weapon even for my own defense?
Get real!
Politicians and rust are guns’ biggest enemies.
Some things never change.