Nearly half of the licensed gun dealers in the U.S. would go out of business if not for gun sales that end up trafficked into Mexico. We’re empowering criminals to continue trafficking as long as these illegal gun sales continue. We can’t let this go on. pic.twitter.com/MBPZiAdDIQ
— Congressman Robert Garcia (@RepRobertGarcia) November 15, 2023
In a Congressional hearing, Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA) claimed that 50% of all gun stores would shut down if it were not for the Mexican drug cartels. This claim sounds absurd, but AmmoLand News took the steps to verify if what the Congressman said was true.
AmmoLand News found out where Rep. Garcia got the information. The Council on Foreign Relations provided the Congressman with the study. AmmoLand News determined the study was a 2013 study from the University of San Diego Trans-Border Institute titled: The Way of the Gun: Estimating Firearms Traffic Across the U.S.-Mexico Border.
First, we need to determine if the study claimed that cartel activity is responsible for keeping 50% of the gun stores in the country open. The study claims that 46.7% of the gun industry is dependent on the U.S.-Mexico firearms trade. The study does not attempt to tie this number to the Mexican drug cartels, making Rep. Garcia’s statements false.
Let us look at the study to further disprove the numbers.
According to the study, 2.2% of firearms made in the U.S. are destined for Mexico. The study does admit this number could be as low as 0.9%. This statistic includes all legal and illegal sales. The study assumes the number of guns trafficked to Mexico between 2010-2012 is 253,000. This estimate assumes that only 15% of trafficked guns are stopped at the border. This number is a guess at best. In 2012 alone, there were nearly 17 million background checks run on gun sales, according to the FBI.
It is worth noting the guns flowing to Mexico during the study were at the same time as the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) Operation Fast and Furious gun-walking scandal.
“A sizeable and growing percentage of U.S. firearms sales are destined for Mexico: 2.2% (between 0.9% and 3.7%) of U.S. domestic arms sales are attributable to the U.S.-Mexico traffic. This percentage is up from roughly 1.75% (between 0.66% and 3.15%) in 1993,” the study reads.
The study also uses a unique way of calculating the profit margins of gun stores. For low-end stores, the study used the average profit margin of gas stations and averaged it with the average profit margin of a food and beverage store (2.34%). In the midrange gun store, the study took the average profits of hardware stores, electronics stores, and general stores (4.68%). For high-end firearms shops, it was just assumed it was around 7%. The study doesn’t give a source for that number.
“We approximated low-end margins by averaging those of gas stations (around 1.68%) and food and beverage stores (at around 3%). We derived a mid-range estimate by averaging the profit margins of hardware stores (4.45%), electronics stores (4.68%), and general stores (4.91%). We took the 7% figure above as representing a high-end estimate,” the study reads.
The study does say it might have overestimated the demand arising from U.S.-Mexico gun trafficking. They state the demand might be from so-called “Minutemen” militias that patrol the border. Also, it included firearms carried by law enforcement officers responsible for border security. For example, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) officers’ firearms might be reflected in the firearms counted by the study. The study’s authors also might have included legal immigrants who have settled near the border.
The study also points out that guns purchased by Americans who live near the border in response to the influx of illegal immigrants from Mexico might have been considered in the study. The study also counted guns that are being exported to South America and pass through Mexico in its stats.
Even in the face of these issues with the study, the researchers think their numbers are conservative.
“There are at least three possible ways our methodology might have over-estimated the demand arising from U.S.-Mexico trafficking. First, proximity to the Mexican border may be a proxy for domestic factors, rather than the U.S.-Mexico firearms trade. One possible example is the so- officers – may themselves contribute to demand. Another example of this type of unaccounted for domestic demand, legal or undocumented immigrants may tend to settle close to the border, and may also exhibit a greater per capita demand for firearms than the American populace at large. Alternatively, border communities may also purchase more firearms in response to immigrant influxes (though large immigrant communities are hardly unique to the U.S.-Mexico border region),” the study states.
Calls to Do Something:
The study concludes with several suggestions. One of the suggestions is to provide where gun sales tax revenues are being allocated by county. The study’s authors claim that this would help law enforcement identify unusual activities and determine how many guns are sold in specific regions.
The study authors also call for enhanced background checks. They claim this change would cut down on straw purchases and would trigger further investigations. The researchers did not lay out any specific changes to the background checks.
The research paper also calls for the end of cash sales near the border. They are trying to establish a paper trail. Their theory is that no one would use a credit card or check to buy a gun for illicit purposes. Gun stores not on the border would still be free to take cash.
U.S. law prevents the ATF and other government agencies from storing information on firearms and traces. The study suggests a workaround by having Mexico store U.S citizen’s gun purchase information since Mexico is not bound by U.S. law. Mexico would then share the information with U.S. law enforcement agencies such as the FBI and the ATF.
The final solution is to have gun stores work more closely with the ATF and develop self-regulation and self-reporting. The study states that most federal firearms licensees (FFLs) are law-abiding, but with the Biden Administration’s hostility towards FFLs, this action seems like a long shot.
The Trans-Border Institute is part of the Joan B. Kroc School of Peace Studies. The article doesn’t appear to have been peer-reviewed. The lead researcher, Professor Topher L. McDougal, has written several anti-gun studies.
For these reasons, AmmoLand News has determined that Rep. Robert Garcia’s claim about 50% of gun stores going out of business without Mexican drug cartels is false and not based on any factual data.
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Current Claim Rating:
- Claim: “Nearly half of the licensed gun dealers in the U.S. would go out of business if not for gun sales that end up trafficked into Mexico.”
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The Way of the Gun: Estimating Firearms Traffic Across the U.S.-Mexico Border
About John Crump
John is a NRA instructor and a constitutional activist; he has written about firearms and interviewed people of all walks of life. Mr. Crump lives in Northern Virginia with his wife and sons and can be followed on X at @crumpyss, or at www.crumpy.com.
First off look at the state that he’s from and look at the political party, enough, said
Anti’s just lie.
Its all they’ve got.
HAHAHAHAHA
First off, the easiest way to say this is Bovine Excrement is that it was presented by a kommiefornian and then add that it was a democrat. Then you look at who provided the information and it gets really deep. I wouldn’t believe anything Mexico or in fact Canada has to say about America when it comes to guns.
Glad I left kommiefornia and was able to get rid of my mud boots and switch to sneakers but it is starting to get thick here too.
there seems to be a lot of assumptions, estimates and approximations made in this study and no real facts or data.
these ultra-left progs cannot tell the truth, they are only capable of lying when speaking of our civil rights.
did they credit batfe for their contribution to the firearms supposedly trafficked to mexico?
does he want to shut down batfe for that?
Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics. Whichever is necessary to promote their ideology and don’t forget the omission of facts, when they get in the way.
Correct! The problem is lazy Americans will believe the lies because they don’t take the time to evaluate what’s said. Our schools no longer, or rarely if ever, teach critical thinking skills. Instead, they teach our kids what to think and how to be a compliant drone. So let’s evaluate one huge unstated fact this Commifornian ignores. Our border with Mexico is kept wide open by Democrats, allowing all kinds of trafficking. Not just guns, but people, drugs, diseases, terrorists, and who the hell knows what else. The Democrats are the problem not gun stores. NEVER VOTE FOR A DEMOCRAT,… Read more »
For the edification of these idiots: Mexico does have its own arms industry. They manufacture a submachine gun similar to the Uzi, among other arms, as well as ammunition. The fact that ordinary Mexicans have no access to these products is immaterial. The criminal element, like criminal elements everywhere, have their own sources.
Just the fact that the CFR promoted this “study “, should set off alarm bells for any halfway sensible person. So of course the average sheep will look at the headline and note that this pile of BS was put out by a “university”, and take it as gospel. It’s obvious that the authors of the study and the congressman know nothing about the gun business. Gun stores make their profits on selling accessories and/or operating a range.
I’m also fairly certain that the cartels machine guns and rocket launchers aren’t coming from US FFL’s.
The antigun has to resort to lies and deception, all while gun sales have hit an all time high. They can’t stand it.
The study also found that approximately 72% of guns sold to states on the U.S./ Mexican border were shipped to their destinations with the mysterious instruction, “Don’t tell Mer!” Authorities are still trying to work out what this might mean.
I see what you did, but Demo Ranch stopped saying that well over a year ago.
Good grief.
Never mind the conex containers full of Russian and Chinese aitomatic asssult rifles, machineguns and RPG’s the cartels import from Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Asia; not to mention their own cortupt government officials.
A more accurate headline: International drug cartels and terrorist organizations were supplied 50% of their arms from the Obama and Biden administrations.
Liar’s gonna Iie.
mr. Robert Garcia IS a BLATANT PREVARICATOR!!
Wow, record level stupidity