FBI Report Shows Dramatic Violent Crime Drop as 29 States Went Permitless

The FBI’s national crime report for 2023 shows a record-breaking decline in murders during a year when the number of states adopting so-called “constitutional carry” rose to 29, undercutting a popular—and obviously false—claim by the gun prohibition lobby that more guns result in more crime.

By no surprise, anti-gunners—including the national media—have ignored that fact. However, the popular HandgunLaw.us website has a complete list of all 29 permitless carry states with the dates their laws became effective.

According to the Brennan Center, “The bureau’s data closely aligns with predictions from independent experts, all of whom estimated steep drops in murders in 2023 and 2024 alike. Indeed, it’s clear that the 2020 murder spike that coincided with the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic has substantially (but not completely) receded.”

A careful glance at the FBI National Instant Check System raw data for background checks suggests continued strong firearms transactions over the past few years. The FBI report was released a week ago, yet there has not been a lot of national ballyhoo.

As noted by Brennan, “Nearly all metrics of crime declined in 2023, with murder dropping most precipitously by a record-setting 11.6 percent. When broken down by rate — the number of offenses per 100,000 people — that is a decline of 12 percent. As a result, the national murder rate now hovers around levels last seen in 2017, which is roughly 11 percent higher than where it stood before the pandemic.”

While the updated concealed carry permit holders report for 2023 is not yet available from the Crime Prevention Research Center, it should be noted that the estimated number of active carry permits and licenses declined slightly last year from 2022, likely because of the adoption of permitless carry laws. There is really no way to estimate the number of law-abiding citizens carrying defensive sidearms under the “constitutional carry” laws, but the fact that violent crime has declined while such laws expanded to 29 states raises significant questions about the necessity for restrictive gun laws.

According to the FBI, “national violent crime decreased an estimated 3.0% in 2023 compared to 2022 estimates:

• Murder and non-negligent manslaughter recorded a 2023 estimated nationwide decrease of 11.6% compared to the previous year.
• In 2023, the estimated number of offenses in the revised rape category saw an estimated 9.4% decrease.
• Aggravated assault figures decreased an estimated 2.8% in 2023.
• Robbery showed an estimated decrease of 0.3% nationally.

But once again, the FBI report retains its user-unfriendly platform, which remains confusing when someone attempts to figure out how many—and especially what kinds—of firearms are used in homicides. Here’s why, as the FBI lists the information:

• Handgun 22,072
• Firearm 17,975
• Rifle 1,796
• Other Firearm 1,176
• Handgun (Automatic) 786
• Shotgun 645
• Firearm (Automatic) 523
• Rifle (Automatic) 140
• Other Firearm (Automatic) 27
• Shotgun (Automatic) 6
• Knife/Cutting Instrument 4,913
• Unknown 2,534
• Personal Weapons 2,489
• Blunt Object 1,250
• Other 1,104

In the past, when attempts were made to contact the FBI for an explanation, neither calls nor emails received a response.

Prior to 2019, FBI Uniform Crime Reports featured an easy-to-use state-by-state breakdown of weapons types, known as “Table 20,” with an estimated total of the specific year’s homicides. Since the FBI changed over to using the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) and the Summary Reporting System, that state rundown has not been available.

According to the FBI, more than 16,000 “state, county, city, university and college, and tribal agencies, covering a combined population of 94.3% inhabitants, submitted data to the UCR Program through the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) and the Summary Reporting System.”

As noted above, coverage of the crime decline—especially as it coincides with a sharp rise in private gun ownership—has been virtually nil.

For example, while the number of murders in Washington state appears to be on the decline, no establishment media has reported how, for the third month in a row, there are more than 700,000 active concealed pistol licenses in circulation. A report Tuesday from the state Department of Licensing to Ammoland News shows the state with 700,519 active CPLs, down slightly from the previous month’s report of 700,574. Washington is considered politically “blue,” but with police manpower down, even liberals appear to be taking more responsibility for their own safety.

Bottom line nationally is that the new FBI crime report offers more evidence that increased private gun ownership has not translated to a dramatic increase in violent crime, especially homicide, and that once again, the number of people murdered with long guns (rifles and shotguns) is exceeded by the number of people killed with knives and other cutting instruments, and the number of people beaten to death with hands, feet and fists.

So, the question is raised: Why so much attention to banning so-called “assault weapons” when they account for a fraction of all murders?

About Dave Workman